Allianz’s Subran Warns of Increased Risk of Policy Mistakes from Fed or ECB
Allianz’s Subran Warns of Increased Risk of Policy Mistakes from Fed or ECB Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz, has warned of the potential for policy missteps by US or euro-zone policymakers as they seek to tighten monetary conditions. Such errors could pose a serious threat to the global economy. During an interview with Bloomberg […]
Mid-Year Outlooks for APAC Sector Less Risky Due to China’s Recovery
Mid-Year Outlooks for APAC Sector Less Risky Due to China’s Recovery The mid-year outlooks for the Asia-Pacific (APAC) sector seem less risky, largely attributable to China’s economic recovery. This represents a significant pivot from previous predictions, highlighted by Fitch Ratings’ recent analysis of 47 mid-year sector outlooks in APAC. Of these, they classified 13 as […]
US Markets See Lower Close in Quiet Trading; Big Tech Pullback Impacts Nasdaq
US Markets See Lower Close in Quiet Trading; Big Tech Pullback Impacts Nasdaq US indices showed varied performance in a subdued trading session. The Nasdaq index experienced a decline of over 1% as Big Tech companies retreated, making it the poorest-performing index of the day. Tesla shares took a significant hit, falling by 6% following […]
German Economy Slows in June as Businesses Encounter Weakening Demand Conditions
German Economy Slows in June as Businesses Encounter Weakening Demand Conditions The German economy experienced a marked loss of momentum during the latter part of the second quarter, according to the latest ‘flash’ PMI survey conducted by Hamburg Commercial Bank. Weakening demand conditions led to a significant slowdown in business activity growth, while company expectations […]
Trade Deficit in New Zealand Grows Despite Boost in China Exports
Trade Deficit in New Zealand Grows Despite Boost in China Exports Despite a boost in exports to China, New Zealand’s trade deficit broadened in May. The deficit increased from NZ$17.02 billion to NZ$17.12 billion, falling just short of economists’ prediction of NZ$17.24 billion. Concurrently, the monthly trade surplus shrank from NZ$236 million to NZ$46 million. […]
Dollar surges after Fed signals more rate hikes ahead
Dollar surges after Fed signals more rate hikes ahead The U.S. dollar rallied in early European trade Thursday, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish projection of more tightening this year, while the euro weakened ahead of the latest European Central Bank policy meeting. At 02:05 ET (06:05 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback […]
GBP/USD struggles to surpass 1.2450, upside seems favored despite hawkish Fed bets improve
GBP/USD struggles to surpass 1.2450, upside seems favored despite hawkish Fed bets improve The GBP/USD pair has witnessed delicate barricades after climbing to near 1.2450 in the early European session. The Cable is expected to remain on tenterhooks as the USD Dollar Index (DXY) has attempted a recovery after dropping to near 103.81. More downside […]
FOMO Regime Change for US Stock Market
FOMO Regime Change for US Stock Market The laggards, Dow Jones Industrial Average & Russell 2000 have recorded stellar single-day outperformances on Friday, 2 June against the Nasdaq 100; at least a three-month high. Market breadth has improved but fundamental structure remains weak due to stagflation risk. Positive FOMO (“fear of missing out”) flows may […]
XAU/USD bears approach $1,930 support on upbeat US Dollar
XAU/USD bears approach $1,930 support on upbeat US Dollar Gold Price (XAU/USD) stays on the bear’s radar for the second consecutive day as the precious metal renews intraday low near $1,945, extending the post-NFP losses amid to early Monday amid firmer US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) […]
EUR/USD: Planning for Friday’s NFP Volatility
EUR/USD: Planning for Friday’s NFP Volatility EUR/USD started June with a 100-pip rally after a volatile end to May. Given the selloff we saw last month, a retracement in early June was to be expected, although I did think a 1.0600 retest might come first. So what should we watch ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll […]
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework Core bonds enjoyed another solid bid yesterday, further unwinding ‘hawkish sentiment’ that reigned since mid-May. Chinese inspired risk-off and softer than expected national CPI data from Germany (HICP 6.3% Y/Y from 7.6%) and France (6.0% from 6.9M%) supported the move. […]
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike The holiday shortened trading week starts tense but on an optimistic note as US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. The deal must get approval in a congressional vote on Wednesday. US […]
US Inflation Expectations Jump, Earnings Season Kicks
US Inflation Expectations Jump, Earnings Season Kicks Despite the softer-than-expected inflation data released earlier last week, US inflation expectations shocked investors at last Friday’s release; the 1-year expectation jumped from 3.6% to 4.6% due to the surprise surge in energy prices. The expectation was a further easing to 3.5%. And energy bulls remain in charge […]
Fed Minutes Showed Recent Banking Turmoil May Result in Lower
Fed Minutes Showed Recent Banking Turmoil May Result in Lower The minutes of the March 21-22, 2023, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reaffirmed that price and financial stability are of paramount importance to the Fed. Regarding the economy, Committee members noted that “recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and output. At the […]
Bank of Canada to hold rates steady
Bank of Canada to hold rates steady Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to maintain its pause this week, leaving interest rates unchanged at a 15-year high of 4.50%. Governor Macklem has emphasized that there’s no need for additional rate hikes if the economy unfolds according to central bank’s projections, which forecast stalling growth […]
EUR/USD struggles to reach yearly high ahead of NFP report
EUR/USD struggles to reach yearly high ahead of NFP report EUR/USD is struggling to test the yearly high (1.1033) as it fails to continue the series of higher highs and lows from the beginning of the week, and the U.S. labour market data (NFP) report may weigh on the exchange rate as employment is expected […]
Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged
Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged The Australian Dollar slipped slightly in the aftermath of the RBA standing still on rates for the first time since May 2022. The RBA maintained some flexibility and didn’t rule out future hikes. In the accompanying statement on monetary policy, they said, “The Board expects that some […]
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April The Minutes emphasize a high degree of uncertainty; do not take into account the global banking disruptions; and point to a pause in April. The Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting on March 7 highlight that unlike recent meetings when several policy options were […]