Gold (XAU/USD) extended its positive tone for a third consecutive day on Friday. However, buyers are still looking for a clear and sustained move above the $5,200 level before committing to stronger bullish positions. Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support the precious metal, especially after the United States increased naval and air deployment in the Middle East. Additionally, US President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of military action against Iran and reiterated that the country would not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. These developments, together with lingering trade uncertainties, are reinforcing demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.
The United States has already imposed a 10% tariff on non-exempt imported goods following the Supreme Court ruling against broader tariff plans. Still, officials are reportedly considering increasing the levy to 15%, which has raised fears of retaliatory actions and disruptions to global supply chains. Constant changes in tariff policy have unsettled investors and added another layer of support for Gold prices.
At the same time, expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve have weakened. Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed policymakers are not rushing to cut interest rates and even discussed potential hikes if inflation remains elevated. This outlook has helped the US Dollar remain close to its monthly highs, limiting stronger gains in non-yielding Gold. Meanwhile, renewed nuclear discussions between the US and Iran have slightly eased fears of immediate conflict, preventing an accelerated rally in the metal.
Investors now await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which could influence Dollar demand and short-term Gold direction before the weekend. Despite mixed signals, Gold remains on course for a fourth straight weekly gain, and any pullback is still likely to attract buyers due to the supportive broader backdrop.
Technical Outlook
A tight range observed over recent sessions suggests a rectangle consolidation pattern on intraday charts. Gold is trading above the rising 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,176, indicating the short-term bullish structure remains intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 50, signaling neutral momentum rather than selling pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator stays slightly above the zero line, supporting a mild bullish bias instead of a strong breakout trend.
Immediate resistance appears near $5,195, where recent advances previously stalled. A decisive breakout above this zone could push prices toward the next target near $5,210. On the downside, initial support lies at the 100-hour SMA around $5,176. A sustained move below this level may expose deeper support near $5,165, aligned with the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range.
Overall, a confirmed move above $5,200 could allow Gold to retest its monthly highs, while failure to hold above support levels may lead to short-term corrective dips.
