Gold slipped back a bit during Thursday’s Asian session, losing some ground after hitting a two-week high. Investors felt more confident about riskier assets, thanks to talk of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace efforts and some positive moves in the markets, so a lot of people took profits and eased out of gold. The US Thanksgiving holiday kept trading pretty quiet, so the drop wasn’t dramatic, and gold didn’t face much real selling pressure.
Even with this pullback, gold still looks pretty solid. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates in December, and recent US numbers haven’t really changed that view. The data’s been mixed—nothing strong enough to flip the market’s thinking. Because of that, the US Dollar is still sitting near a one-week low, which helps keep gold from falling much further.
Weaker US Dollar and Dovish Fed Outlook Cushion the Decline
Fed officials keep hinting at rate cuts, too. John Williams, Christopher Waller, and Stephen Miran have all suggested lower rates are likely as the job market cools and inflation doesn’t look so threatening. At this point, most people are betting on a quarter-point cut at the December FOMC meeting, which has been weighing on both Treasury yields and the Dollar.
On the data front, things are still a bit all over the place. Durable Goods Orders went up 0.5%—not as strong as last month, but better than expected. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. Those numbers gave risk assets a bit of a lift, but they didn’t really change the Fed story.
Gold Technical Levels: Support at $4,130, Resistance Near $4,173
Looking at the charts, gold should find support around $4,130. If it dips further, keep an eye on $4,100 – it might bounce or break there. Should prices fall under the 200-period EMA around $4,040, downward force may pull gold closer to $4,000. On the upside, resistance sits between $4,171 and $4,173. If gold manages to punch through that, there’s a decent shot at $4,200, maybe even up to the monthly high near $4,245.
