WTI crude pushed up toward $59.50 in Thursday’s Asian trading after the latest EIA data surprised the market. Traders jumped in when the report showed U.S. crude inventories dropped by 3.43 million barrels last week. That’s a much bigger draw than anyone expected—most were looking for just a 1.9 million-barrel decline.
For context, the previous week actually saw a build of over 6 million barrels, so this turnaround definitely caught attention. At the moment, oil reserves in America are roughly 5% under the usual five-year norm for this time of year. Refineries have been running hard, while overseas buyers keep pulling supply, which has shrunk stockpiles—this has boosted prices for WTI crude.
EIA Reports a Larger Crude Inventory Decline
But the rally has its limits. Geopolitics are still in play. The U.S. keeps pushing for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and, from what’s leaking out, Washington wants Kyiv to accept a draft peace deal. That would likely mean some territorial concessions and restrictions on weapons. If the fighting stops, expect Russian oil to flood back into the market, which could drag prices down.
Geopolitical and Fed Concerns Limit Further Upside
On top of that, the Fed is complicating things. Investors are backing off bets on a December rate cut—now there’s less than a 30% chance, compared to over 60% just weeks ago. Higher rates usually mean a stronger dollar. That makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which tends to cool demand and keeps WTI’s gains in check.
