USD/CAD barely budged around 1.3950 during Friday’s Asian hours. No one wanted to make a big move before Canada’s jobs numbers drop later today. The pair stuck to its range from Thursday, with everyone waiting for fresh economic clues that might sway the Bank of Canada’s next policy call. That labor report lands at 13:30 GMT, and it’s got some weight—it could decide if the BoC keeps cutting rates.
Canada’s Job Market Looks Shaky
Forecasts say Canada’s job market barely moved in November. No big hiring, no big layoffs—just a pause after October’s impressive 66,600 jobs added. But unemployment looks set to tick up to 7% from 6.9%. That’s not a great sign. If the numbers show more weakness, the BoC probably cuts rates again at their meeting on Wednesday. That would likely put more pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
US Dollar Gains Hold Back as Fed Cut Hopes Stay High
Meanwhile, the US Dollar moved sideways too, with traders pretty sure the Federal Reserve will trim rates next week. The Dollar Index hung out near a five-week low around 98.75, thanks to a market that’s thinking dovish. Odds for a 25 bp Fed cut? About 87% according to CME FedWatch. Soft US jobs data and the idea that tariff-driven inflation won’t last are just fueling bets the Fed keeps easing.
With both central banks looking to loosen up, everyone’s glued to the data to figure out where USD/CAD heads next.
