The US Dollar Index eased to roughly 98.55 in the early Asian session on Thursday. It wasn’t a dramatic fall—more like the kind of slow slide you notice only when you look twice. Traders have seen this kind of reaction before: the Dollar doesn’t jump or crash; it just loosens its shoulders after a big Fed week and lets the market figure out the next move.
Powell’s Message: We’ve Cut Enough—for Now
The Fed went ahead with another 25 bps cut, the third one in a row, placing rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Powell, though, sounded almost cautious, even slightly tired of rate changes. He said the central bank is “well positioned to wait and see”, and from the tone, you could tell they aren’t itching to hike again.
What surprised traders less—but still mattered—was that the Fed maintained its projection for one cut next year. Nothing more. Nothing less. Traders read between the lines very quickly. A less hawkish Fed, even if not outright dovish, tends to push the dollar lower. And that’s pretty much what we’re seeing: a softer DXY rather than a shaken one.
Jobless Claims Could Give the Dollar Its Next Push
Before the opening bell in the US, all eyes will swing to Initial Jobless Claims. Forecasts point to around 220,000, a noticeable jump from last week’s 191,000. If the number pops higher than expected, the Dollar might find a bit of footing. However, the drift towards the 98.50 region may continue if the reading falls short.
In any case, Thursday seems to be one of those days when the market is waiting for data to make a stronger statement than the Fed did.
