JPY Bearish Positioning is Getting Overstretched
JPY Bearish Positioning is Getting Overstretched Better than expected US non-farm payrolls for April have failed to ignite US dollar bulls. Two outliers; the safe haven currencies, CHF and JPY underperformed against the US dollar due to the resurgence of risk-on behavior in the US stock market. JPY future’s bearish positioning has highlighted a risk […]
Will Nonfarm Payrolls Hint at a Fed Pause in June?
Will Nonfarm Payrolls Hint at a Fed Pause in June? The Federal Reserve delivered its tenth consecutive rate hike on Wednesday, as expected, but reset its guidance to indicate increased emphasis on incoming data. Hence, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will be the next test for the US dollar at 12:30 GMT, with forecasts pointing to a […]
RBA Board Hikes the Cash Rate by 0.25%
RBA Board Hikes the Cash Rate by 0.25% Choosing to raise is the better policy option, even if it is not consistent with our interpretation of the implicit guidelines. The Reserve Bank Board raised the policy rate by another 0.25% at its May meeting, bringing the policy rate to 3.85%. The decision came as a […]
Fed Minutes Showed Recent Banking Turmoil May Result in Lower
Fed Minutes Showed Recent Banking Turmoil May Result in Lower The minutes of the March 21-22, 2023, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reaffirmed that price and financial stability are of paramount importance to the Fed. Regarding the economy, Committee members noted that “recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and output. At the […]
EUR/USD struggles to reach yearly high ahead of NFP report
EUR/USD struggles to reach yearly high ahead of NFP report EUR/USD is struggling to test the yearly high (1.1033) as it fails to continue the series of higher highs and lows from the beginning of the week, and the U.S. labour market data (NFP) report may weigh on the exchange rate as employment is expected […]
Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged
Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged The Australian Dollar slipped slightly in the aftermath of the RBA standing still on rates for the first time since May 2022. The RBA maintained some flexibility and didn’t rule out future hikes. In the accompanying statement on monetary policy, they said, “The Board expects that some […]
Gold Price Vulnerable to Persistent US Inflation
Gold Price Vulnerable to Persistent US Inflation The cost of gold might organize further endeavors to test the 2022 high ($2071) as it moves to a new week-after-week high ($1984), however new information print emerging from the US might prompt a pullback in bullion as the Individual Utilization Use (PCE) cost file is supposed to […]
Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator
Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator The Monthly CPI indicator rose 6.8% in the year to February, compared with the Westpac forecast of 7.4% year-on-year and the market forecast of 7.2% year-on-year. This represents a significant downside risk to our March forecast CPI forecast of 1.5% per quarter. Specifically, the index rose only 0.2% in February […]
GBP/USD Eyes Sustained Increase Above
GBP/USD Eyes Sustained Increase Above GBP/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.2220 level. A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.2240 on the 4-hours chart. EUR/USD is well supported above the 1.0720 support zone. USD/JPY might attempt a recovery wave if it clears the 132.00 resistance. GBP/USD The British Pound gained […]
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April The Minutes emphasize a high degree of uncertainty; do not take into account the global banking disruptions; and point to a pause in April. The Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting on March 7 highlight that unlike recent meetings when several policy options were […]
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA as it fails to clear the week high, but data prints coming out of Australia may prop up the exchange rate as job growth is expected to rebound in February. AUD/USD largely mirrors the weakness across […]
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth China’s banks lent a record 4.9 trillion yen in January as the economy reopened from lockdowns. And there was some anticipation to see whether the new loans were making their way through the economy to aid the governments GDP target of around 5% this year. […]
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes The price of gold carves a series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempt to test the February low of $1805, and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) may continue to heighten the appeal of bullion as market participants scale […]
EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report
EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report EUR/USD takes out the February low following the failed attempts to trade back above the 50-day SMA, and developments coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate under pressure as the NFP report is anticipated to show another rise in employment. EUR/USD fails […]
GBP/USD Fed Chair Jerome Powell
GBP/USD Fed Chair Jerome Powell Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the pace of quarter-point interest-rate increases is not set in stone, and a faster tightening of rates may be warranted if economic data indicates it is necessary. Powell’s follow-up testimony tomorrow will be his last scheduled public remarks on interest-rate policy before the Fed’s […]
AUD/USD Defends January Low Ahead of RBA Rate Decision
AUD/USD Defends January Low Ahead of RBA Rate Decision AUD/USD trades in a narrow range after struggling to push back above the 200-Day SMA, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision may keep the exchange rate afloat as the central bank is expected to implement higher interest rates. AUD/USD appears to be defending the […]
The RBA Expected hike 25bp
The RBA Expected hike 25bp The Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to hike their overnight cash rate by 25bp, which would see the OCR at a 10-year high of 3.6%. We noted in their February meeting that the statement has a hawkish tone, and that the wording suggested at least two more hikes are […]
EUR/USD Rebound Fizzles Ahead of 50-Day SMA
EUR/USD Rebound Fizzles Ahead of 50-Day SMA EUR/USD approaches the 50-day SMA as it extends the rebound from the February low 1.0533, but a slowdown in the Euro Area’s Consumer Price Index may drag on the exchange rate as it encourages the European Central Bank to winddown its hiking-cycle. The decline from the yearly high […]