US Yields Climb as Fed’s Powell Reinforces Commitment to Addressing Inflation
US Yields Climb as Fed’s Powell Reinforces Commitment to Addressing Inflation Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which reinforced the central bank’s dedication to addressing inflation and achieving the 2% target, US Treasury yields experienced a rise. The yield curve inversion between two-year and 10-year Treasury notes intensified, implying that investors expect further rate […]
RBA Minutes Less Hawkish Than Expected, For Now
RBA Minutes Less Hawkish Than Expected, For Now The Board sees increased inflation risks while recognizing prospect of weakening economy. And rising unemployment rate. The Minutes from the Reserve Bank Board’s meeting in June provide a more balanced approach to the outlook for rates than we saw in the Governor’s statement following the decision to […]
Euro Rallies after ECB Raises Rates and Inflation Forecasts
Euro Rallies after ECB Raises Rates and Inflation Forecasts It was mostly a good day for the global markets, except for Europe, which saw the European Central Bank (ECB) expectedly raise interest rates by 25bp, but unexpectedly raised inflation forecast, as well. European policy makers now expect core inflation to average past the 5% mark, […]
A Busy Week for Central Banks
A Busy Week for Central Banks Sentiment is cautiously bullish into the next US CPI figure, due tomorrow, and the next FOMC decision due Wednesday. U.S. inflation is expected to have fallen to 4.1% in May from 4.9%, and core inflation is estimated to be lower at 5.3% from 5.5% published the previous month earlier. […]
Chinese Markets Unmoved By This Morning’s Price Data
Chinese Markets Unmoved By This Morning’s Price Data US weekly jobless claims, of all things, was responsible for yesterday’s main market move. Applications rose from 233k to 261k, more than the 235k expected. It triggered a US bond rally which dragged European peers higher as well. While it doesn’t change expectations for a pause at […]
Reserve Bank of Australia Raised Policy Rate Further by 25 bps
Reserve Bank of Australia Raised Policy Rate Further by 25 bps A disappointing US non-manufacturing ISM was yesterday’s defining moment for FI and FX trading. Up until the release, the post-payrolls momentum still pushed US rates and the dollar gently higher. Afterwards, intraday fortunes changes, the first Pavlov reaction didn’t really gain traction afterwards. Turning […]
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework Core bonds enjoyed another solid bid yesterday, further unwinding ‘hawkish sentiment’ that reigned since mid-May. Chinese inspired risk-off and softer than expected national CPI data from Germany (HICP 6.3% Y/Y from 7.6%) and France (6.0% from 6.9M%) supported the move. […]
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike The holiday shortened trading week starts tense but on an optimistic note as US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. The deal must get approval in a congressional vote on Wednesday. US […]
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast EUR/USD: Dollar Awaits U.S. Bankruptcy The dollar has been rising since May 4. Last week, on May 26, the DXY Index reached 104.34. It hasn’t been this high since mid-March 2023. What is driving the U.S. currency up and, consequently, pushing the EUR/USD pair down? According to analysts at Commerzbank, “the […]
US PCE Deflators and Durable Goods Orders Scheduled
US PCE Deflators and Durable Goods Orders Scheduled UK bonds crashed for a second day straight with yields adding 10.6-19.2 bps across the curve. UK money markets discount an additional 100 bps tightening by December following the big upside CPI surprise Wednesday morning. Sterling initially revisited YtD highs but unable to force a break higher, […]
US Debt Theater: Final Act?
US Debt Theater: Final Act? Risk sentiment remains poor as the US couldn’t reached an agreement on its debt ceiling. But House Speaker McCarthy hinted that an agreement is possible within days. Despite both sides being far apart, everyone knows the catastrophic consequences of an eventual US default, and no one is ready to push […]
Agreement On U.S Debt Ceiling Unlikely Before Last Minute
Agreement On U.S Debt Ceiling Unlikely Before Last Minute U.S. stocks started the week on a slightly positive note after weak economic data fueled expectations of a pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed), hopes of a resolution in the debt ceiling talks between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy, and Microsoft received EU approval to buy […]
Euro Having Harder Time Against Both Dollar and Sterling
Euro Having Harder Time Against Both Dollar and Sterling The University of Michigan consumer confidence for the month of May unexpectedly set the tone for last week’s trading session WS. The overall indicator fell more than expected, from 63.5 to 57.7, the lowest level since last July. However, markets focused on the prospective inflation expectations […]
AUD/USD Dips on Soft Retail Sales
AUD/USD Dips on Soft Retail Sales AUD/USD ends 6-day rally Australian retail sales decline Fed warns that banks are tightening credit The Australian dollar is in negative territory, ending a rally of close to 200 points. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6760, down 0.29% on the day. Australian retail sales decline Australian […]
JPY Bearish Positioning is Getting Overstretched
JPY Bearish Positioning is Getting Overstretched Better than expected US non-farm payrolls for April have failed to ignite US dollar bulls. Two outliers; the safe haven currencies, CHF and JPY underperformed against the US dollar due to the resurgence of risk-on behavior in the US stock market. JPY future’s bearish positioning has highlighted a risk […]
A Risky Lopsided US Stock Market Performance
A Risky Lopsided US Stock Market Performance The year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 has been heavily skewed by the top 8 market cap stocks (FAANG + MNT). US regional bank fear persists despite the takeover of First Republic Bank by JPMorgan Chase. Markets are looking out for clues on the timing of the first […]
RBA Board Hikes the Cash Rate by 0.25%
RBA Board Hikes the Cash Rate by 0.25% Choosing to raise is the better policy option, even if it is not consistent with our interpretation of the implicit guidelines. The Reserve Bank Board raised the policy rate by another 0.25% at its May meeting, bringing the policy rate to 3.85%. The decision came as a […]
Slightly Easing Price Pressures
Slightly Easing Price Pressures A busy week of data releases and central banks begins on a quiet note. Today we are eager to see if the US ISM manufacturing index for April reflects similar strength to previous PMIs. Early Tuesday morning, we expect the RBA to leave monetary policy unchanged in line with market […]