RBA Board to Pause Again at its May Meeting
RBA Board to Pause Again at its May Meeting The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on May 2. Following the release of the March quarter inflation report Westpac now expects the Board to extend the pause it instigated at its April meeting to the May meeting. This decision comes despite the likelihood that the […]
Riksbank to Deliver 50bp Rate Hike Today
Riksbank to Deliver 50bp Rate Hike Today Today’s main event will be the Riksbank’s policy rate decision at 9:30 CET, where we expect a 50 basis point hike in line with market prices. We also expect the Riksbank to announce another rate hike in June (more on this in the Nordic section). On the data […]
Caution Prevails Ahead of Big Tech Earnings
Caution Prevails Ahead of Big Tech Earnings Most Asian equities flashed red on Tuesday, pressured by losses in Chinese shares as investors evaluated China’s re-opening story in the face of negative economic and geopolitical forces. European futures are pointing to a mixed open with market players guarded ahead of another event-heavy week for financial markets. […]
EUR/USD Key Resistance Test
EUR/USD Key Resistance Test EUR/USD: EUR/USD continues to struggle with resistance around the 1.1000 level, despite aggressive comments from ECB, which were reiterated in the release of the meeting minutes of the Bank’s latest rate hike. Headline inflation CPI has continued to fall in both the U.S. and Europe, and this week eurozone inflation CPI […]
EUR/USD April 2022 High Offers Resistance
EUR/USD April 2022 High Offers Resistance EUR/USD cleared the February high (1.1033) last week to register a fresh yearly high (1.1076), but lack of momentum to breach the April 2022 high (1.1076) may lead to a near-term pullback in the exchange rate as it snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows. EUR/USD forecast: […]
Bank of Canada to hold rates steady
Bank of Canada to hold rates steady Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to maintain its pause this week, leaving interest rates unchanged at a 15-year high of 4.50%. Governor Macklem has emphasized that there’s no need for additional rate hikes if the economy unfolds according to central bank’s projections, which forecast stalling growth […]
First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review The RBNZ raised the policy rate by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points, and another 25 basis point hike appears to be scheduled for the May Monetary Policy Statement. RBNZ Monetary Policy Report, April 2023 The Reserve Bank surprisingly raised the OCR by 50 basis points to 5.25% at […]
US Takes Center Stage in this Holiday-Shorted Week
US Takes Center Stage in this Holiday-Shorted Week The steep decline in strength costs over the previous few months prompted March headline inflation in Europe to decline considerably year-over-year (from 8.5% to 6.9%). Rising core inflation and excessive m/m readings on the other hand confirmed that this is solely the effortless phase in the lengthy […]
German and Spanish Inflation Prints in Focus
German and Spanish Inflation Prints in Focus The main focus today will be on the German and Spanish flash inflation data, which will provide the first sense of what to expect from the euro area HICP figures tomorrow. Generally, we forecast gradually easing headline inflation, but see core inflation pressures still remaining at elevated levels. […]
Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator
Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator The Monthly CPI indicator rose 6.8% in the year to February, compared with the Westpac forecast of 7.4% year-on-year and the market forecast of 7.2% year-on-year. This represents a significant downside risk to our March forecast CPI forecast of 1.5% per quarter. Specifically, the index rose only 0.2% in February […]
GBP/USD Eyes Sustained Increase Above
GBP/USD Eyes Sustained Increase Above GBP/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.2220 level. A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.2240 on the 4-hours chart. EUR/USD is well supported above the 1.0720 support zone. USD/JPY might attempt a recovery wave if it clears the 132.00 resistance. GBP/USD The British Pound gained […]
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April The Minutes emphasize a high degree of uncertainty; do not take into account the global banking disruptions; and point to a pause in April. The Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting on March 7 highlight that unlike recent meetings when several policy options were […]
Cautious Trade to start the week, EUR/AUD Focused
Cautious Trade to start the week, EUR/AUD Focused Australia’s ASX 200 index fell by -96.3 points and currently trades at 6,898.50. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -360.97 points and currently trades at 26,972.82. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has fallen by -534.15 points and currently trades at 18,984.44 China’s A50 index has fallen […]
ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips
ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips Dovish rate hike by ECB EUR falls across the board Attention turns to Lagarde at ECB presser The ECB had set itself up to disappoint some market participants after talking up 50 basis points. As it turned out, and despite all the troubles in the banking sector, it stuck […]
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA as it fails to clear the week high, but data prints coming out of Australia may prop up the exchange rate as job growth is expected to rebound in February. AUD/USD largely mirrors the weakness across […]
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth China’s banks lent a record 4.9 trillion yen in January as the economy reopened from lockdowns. And there was some anticipation to see whether the new loans were making their way through the economy to aid the governments GDP target of around 5% this year. […]
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes The price of gold carves a series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempt to test the February low of $1805, and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) may continue to heighten the appeal of bullion as market participants scale […]
Preview of NZ Q4 GDP
Preview of NZ Q4 GDP The expectation is 0.2% fall in GDP for the December Quarter, following two quarters of extremely strong growth. This does not necessarily mark the start of a recession. GDP data has been choppy since Covid, and the details don’t tell a consistent story about whether monetary policy is biting. Nevertheless, […]