US Takes Center Stage in this Holiday-Shorted Week
US Takes Center Stage in this Holiday-Shorted Week The steep decline in strength costs over the previous few months prompted March headline inflation in Europe to decline considerably year-over-year (from 8.5% to 6.9%). Rising core inflation and excessive m/m readings on the other hand confirmed that this is solely the effortless phase in the lengthy […]
German and Spanish Inflation Prints in Focus
German and Spanish Inflation Prints in Focus The main focus today will be on the German and Spanish flash inflation data, which will provide the first sense of what to expect from the euro area HICP figures tomorrow. Generally, we forecast gradually easing headline inflation, but see core inflation pressures still remaining at elevated levels. […]
Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator
Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator The Monthly CPI indicator rose 6.8% in the year to February, compared with the Westpac forecast of 7.4% year-on-year and the market forecast of 7.2% year-on-year. This represents a significant downside risk to our March forecast CPI forecast of 1.5% per quarter. Specifically, the index rose only 0.2% in February […]
GBP/USD Eyes Sustained Increase Above
GBP/USD Eyes Sustained Increase Above GBP/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.2220 level. A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.2240 on the 4-hours chart. EUR/USD is well supported above the 1.0720 support zone. USD/JPY might attempt a recovery wave if it clears the 132.00 resistance. GBP/USD The British Pound gained […]
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April The Minutes emphasize a high degree of uncertainty; do not take into account the global banking disruptions; and point to a pause in April. The Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting on March 7 highlight that unlike recent meetings when several policy options were […]
Cautious Trade to start the week, EUR/AUD Focused
Cautious Trade to start the week, EUR/AUD Focused Australia’s ASX 200 index fell by -96.3 points and currently trades at 6,898.50. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -360.97 points and currently trades at 26,972.82. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has fallen by -534.15 points and currently trades at 18,984.44 China’s A50 index has fallen […]
ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips
ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips Dovish rate hike by ECB EUR falls across the board Attention turns to Lagarde at ECB presser The ECB had set itself up to disappoint some market participants after talking up 50 basis points. As it turned out, and despite all the troubles in the banking sector, it stuck […]
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA as it fails to clear the week high, but data prints coming out of Australia may prop up the exchange rate as job growth is expected to rebound in February. AUD/USD largely mirrors the weakness across […]
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth China’s banks lent a record 4.9 trillion yen in January as the economy reopened from lockdowns. And there was some anticipation to see whether the new loans were making their way through the economy to aid the governments GDP target of around 5% this year. […]
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes The price of gold carves a series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempt to test the February low of $1805, and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) may continue to heighten the appeal of bullion as market participants scale […]
Preview of NZ Q4 GDP
Preview of NZ Q4 GDP The expectation is 0.2% fall in GDP for the December Quarter, following two quarters of extremely strong growth. This does not necessarily mark the start of a recession. GDP data has been choppy since Covid, and the details don’t tell a consistent story about whether monetary policy is biting. Nevertheless, […]
USD/JPY Outlook Mired by Failure to Test December High
USD/JPY Outlook Mired by Failure to Test December High USD/JPY appears to be reversing ahead of the December 2022 high 138.18 as it fails to hold above 200-day SMA, but the Bank Of Japan interest rate decision may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as the central bank is expected to retain its […]
EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report
EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report EUR/USD takes out the February low following the failed attempts to trade back above the 50-day SMA, and developments coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate under pressure as the NFP report is anticipated to show another rise in employment. EUR/USD fails […]
GBP/USD Fed Chair Jerome Powell
GBP/USD Fed Chair Jerome Powell Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the pace of quarter-point interest-rate increases is not set in stone, and a faster tightening of rates may be warranted if economic data indicates it is necessary. Powell’s follow-up testimony tomorrow will be his last scheduled public remarks on interest-rate policy before the Fed’s […]
AUD/USD Defends January Low Ahead of RBA Rate Decision
AUD/USD Defends January Low Ahead of RBA Rate Decision AUD/USD trades in a narrow range after struggling to push back above the 200-Day SMA, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision may keep the exchange rate afloat as the central bank is expected to implement higher interest rates. AUD/USD appears to be defending the […]
The RBA Expected hike 25bp
The RBA Expected hike 25bp The Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to hike their overnight cash rate by 25bp, which would see the OCR at a 10-year high of 3.6%. We noted in their February meeting that the statement has a hawkish tone, and that the wording suggested at least two more hikes are […]
The Week Head:- BOJ, RBA and BOC Meetings
The Week Head:- BOJ, RBA and BOC Meetings An exciting week for markets, with three major currency central banks announcing their monetary policy decisions and a Nonfarm payroll report. The RBA’s meeting on Tuesday is the most likely to be the live one, but don’t write off the BOJ’s ability of surprising market at Governor […]
NZD/CHF Wave Analysis
NZD/CHF Wave Analysis NZDCHF reversed from support level 0.5750 Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5830 NZDCHF recently reversed up from the key support level 0.5750. The support level 0.5750 coincided with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward ABC correction from the start of October. NZDCHF can be expected to rise further […]