GBP/USD isn’t really going anywhere right now, hovering near 1.3330 in Friday’s Asian hours. Everyone’s just waiting for the US PCE inflation numbers—the data got delayed, so traders are playing it safe until they see what the Fed might do next. Nobody wants to make big bets on the Pound or the Dollar before getting a clearer signal on interest rates.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Lift GBP/USD—But BoE Expectations Limit Gains
The US Dollar’s feeling a bit soft as talk of a Fed rate cut grows louder. The CME FedWatch Tool puts odds of a quarter-point cut next week at almost 89%, and that’s helping support GBP/USD for now. Still, there’s a ceiling. Worries about the UK economy and chatter about the Bank of England also cutting rates—maybe as soon as December—are holding the Pound back. Markets are giving a 90% chance of a BoE cut, so any serious push higher for GBP/USD keeps running into resistance.
Technical View: Support Holds at 1.3300
GBP/USD still looks strong as long as it holds above 1.3300, since that’s where the 100-day EMA lines up. The pair is currently embracing its Bollinger Band’s upper edge. There is some energy in this move, but it’s not out of control because RSI is at 61. If buyers manage to break through 1.3348, you’ll probably see the rally pick up speed. But if the price drops below 1.3300, watch for a slide down to 1.3189—that would put the brakes on this bullish run.
