The EUR/USD pair rose more than 0.20% on Monday, supported by renewed concerns about a potential US government shutdown. Despite improved sentiment data in the Eurozone, the common currency’s advance remained modest. At the time of writing, the pair trades near 1.1726, after touching a daily low of 1.1701.
Dollar weakens amid political deadlock in Washington
The US Dollar slipped against most G10 currencies as political uncertainty in Washington weighed on investor sentiment. President Donald Trump met with Democratic leaders from both the House and Senate, but the discussions revealed deep divisions.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said, “We have large differences,” while House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries stressed that his party would not support a partisan Republican bill that threatens healthcare. Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance told Bloomberg that the US is heading toward a shutdown following stalled talks.
Fed comments mixed; US housing data supports outlook
Earlier in the session, US housing data surprised to the upside, with Pending Home Sales jumping 4% in August, far above the 0.3% expected, and reversing July’s slight decline.
Federal Reserve officials, however, struck mixed tones:
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St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem described inflation expectations as “somewhat high,” while noting labor market weakness.
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Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintained that inflation remains too high and continues on the wrong path.
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New York Fed President John Williams highlighted that policy is restrictive but still effective in easing inflationary pressures, while acknowledging gradual labor market softening.
Eurozone sentiment improves but stays subdued
In Europe, September data showed Consumer Confidence rising slightly to -14.9 from -15.5, though still below long-term averages. Industrial Confidence eased to -10.3 but beat forecasts, while Services Sentiment slipped to 3.6, missing expectations.
Key events ahead
Markets now shift focus to this week’s upcoming data releases, including:
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ADP Employment Report
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ISM Manufacturing PMI
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Initial Jobless Claims
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September Nonfarm Payrolls
Fed fund futures currently show an 89% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in October, with just an 11% probability of a larger 50-bps move.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD steady near 1.1740
The pair has logged two consecutive bullish sessions, hovering around the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 1.1740. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, hinting at possible consolidation.
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A break above 1.1740 could open the way to 1.1800, followed by the yearly high at 1.1918.
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On the downside, a drop below 1.1700 may expose 1.1650, with the next key support at the 100-day SMA near 1.1599.
