NZD/USD climbed higher in Monday’s Asian trading, pushing toward 0.5785 after China posted surprisingly strong trade numbers. China’s trade surplus hit $111.68 billion in November—its biggest in five months and a big jump from October’s $90.07 billion. That matters for the Kiwi because New Zealand relies on China as a major trading partner. When China’s trade numbers look good, the New Zealand Dollar usually benefits.
China’s Strong Export Growth Supports the Kiwi
China’s exports shot up 5.7% in November, and imports crept up 1.9%. It’s a sign that demand outside China is picking up and their economy’s holding up better than people thought. With trade ties so close, this kind of strength in China tends to lift the NZD, which often acts as a stand-in for China’s economic outlook.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations in Focus
Now, everyone’s watching the US Fed. The market expects almost a 90% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday—a third cut in a row. If the Fed sounds dovish, that could put more pressure on the US Dollar and help NZD/USD move higher. Still, if Jerome Powell leans hawkish even as they cut, the Dollar might bounce back in the short term and cap the Kiwi’s gains.
