Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady near the $3,680 region during Tuesday’s Asian session, consolidating its recent surge to an all-time high. The metal’s pause reflects caution ahead of a busy week of central bank events, with the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and updated economic projections on Wednesday in sharp focus. A widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut, along with Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, will guide expectations on the Fed’s easing path and likely dictate the next big move for both the US Dollar (USD) and bullion.
Beyond the Fed, traders will also monitor decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday), the Bank of England (Thursday), and the Bank of Japan (Friday). Rising geopolitical tensions continue to provide a safety bid for gold, though overbought technical conditions and firmer risk sentiment could limit near-term upside momentum.
Market Drivers
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Fed expectations: Softer August Nonfarm Payrolls data has reinforced bets for aggressive easing, with markets pricing three Fed cuts this year, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
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US politics: The Senate confirmed Trump aide Stephen Miran to the Fed’s Board of Governors, while a federal court ruled that Governor Lisa Cook cannot be removed by the president—adding to policy intrigue ahead of the FOMC meeting.
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Geopolitical risks: Russia intensified attacks on Zaporizhzhia following Ukrainian strikes on its oil infrastructure. At the same time, an emergency summit of Arab and Islamic leaders condemned Israel’s killing of Hamas leaders in Doha, calling for collective UN action—both developments sustaining safe-haven demand.
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US data watch: Retail Sales and Industrial Production releases today are unlikely to shift sentiment meaningfully ahead of central bank events.
Technical Outlook
The sharp overnight rally confirmed a breakout from a bullish flag formation, reinforcing the broader bullish trend. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 70, signaling stretched conditions.
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Resistance: The $3,700 round figure is emerging as a near-term ceiling and pivotal level.
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Support: Initial downside is seen around $3,645 (flag breakout zone), followed by $3,633. Deeper losses could expose $3,610–3,600, with a decisive break opening the door toward $3,562–3,560 and potentially $3,500.
Despite risks of short-term pullback, the broader bias stays constructive while fundamentals and geopolitics continue to favor gold.
