EUR/USD started the week on a firm footing, rising toward the 1.1770 level during the Asian session amid renewed optimism surrounding a potential US-EU trade agreement. However, the pair is struggling to build on this momentum as traders remain cautious ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday and key U.S. economic data due later in the week.
From a technical standpoint, the pair remains comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart—a key support level. Positive signals from momentum indicators on both the daily and intraday timeframes suggest potential for further upside. However, a clear breakout above the recent swing high near 1.1770 would be needed to confirm bullish continuation.
If that level is breached, EUR/USD could advance past the 1.1800 psychological barrier, potentially targeting 1.1830—its highest level since September 2021—and eventually the 1.1900 mark. A sustained move beyond 1.1900 would reinforce the broader uptrend from the year’s low around 1.0180–1.0175 set in January.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-SMA near 1.1700. A break below this could lead to a dip toward the 1.1640 support zone. Buyers are expected to defend this region, with stronger support likely near the 1.1600 round figure. A decisive drop below 1.1600 may expose the monthly low around 1.1560–1.1555.
Further selling could then push the pair toward the key 1.1500 psychological level, with additional losses potentially extending toward 1.1455–1.1450 and the 1.1400 support area.
