{"id":22146,"date":"2023-07-20T08:41:47","date_gmt":"2023-07-20T08:41:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xtreamforex.com\/?p=22146"},"modified":"2023-07-20T08:41:47","modified_gmt":"2023-07-20T08:41:47","slug":"australias-june-labour-force-demonstrates-limited-signs-of-letting-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/MU\/australias-june-labour-force-demonstrates-limited-signs-of-letting-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia&#8217;s June Labour Force Demonstrates Limited Signs of Letting Up"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Australia&#8217;s June Labour Force Demonstrates Limited Signs of Letting Up<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Australia&#8217;s June labour force showed remarkable resilience, with employment growth exceeding expectations. The month saw an increase of 32.6k jobs, a 0.2% rise that surpassed Westpac&#8217;s prediction of a 25k boost and far exceeded the median market forecast of a modest 15k increase. Throughout the first half of 2023, employment growth maintained an impressive pace, with the average three-month change remaining above 40k per month. This rate is significantly higher than the pace in the latter half of 2022 (+26k per month) and nearly matches the overall increase seen last year (+42k).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the rapid employment growth, the quality of job growth has not suffered. Full-time positions accounted for around 86% of new jobs over the past six months, with an increase of 218.4k compared to the 35.9k rise in part-time work. This trend mirrors the early stages of job recovery post-COVID-19, contrasting sharply with pre-pandemic years when full-time employment made up a smaller majority (approximately 60%) of job growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further emphasizing this trend, the seasonally adjusted hours worked continues to rise robustly, once again outpacing employment growth with a 0.3% increase in June. Year-to-date, hours worked have increased by 3.0%, which is notably higher than the same period last year (1.9%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The employment-to-population ratio continued its record-breaking streak, nudging slightly higher in June after reaching a new high in May, staying steady at 64.5%. The participation rate only slightly decreased from its historic high in May, from 66.9% to 66.8%, resulting in a solid labour force growth of 21.8k in June. Coupled with strong employment growth, the unemployment rate remained near 50-year lows, at 3.5%. In fact, June&#8217;s unemployment rate is second-lowest in this cycle, just 0.04ppt above the low observed in October 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other labour <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/mu\/market-news\/\"><strong>market<\/strong><\/a> indicators echoed this positive sentiment. The underemployment rate, which measures those employed but wishing to work more hours, stayed at 6.4% in June. The underutilisation rate, a combination of unemployment and underemployment, slightly decreased to 9.9%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notably, the unemployment rate in NSW dropped 0.1ppt to a record low of 2.9%. Other states also saw declines, including Qld (-0.3ppt to 3.6%), WA (-0.1ppt to 3.6%), and Tas (-0.7ppt to 3.5%). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady in Vic (3.7%) and slightly increased in SA (+0.2ppt to 4.2%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In summary, the June Labour Force Survey presented another robust snapshot of the labour market. The survey&#8217;s tone aligns with our view of the labour market, expecting the unemployment rate to rise to only 4.0% by year&#8217;s end given the near-term resilience of labour demand and strong growth in labour supply.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia&#8217;s June Labour Force Demonstrates Limited Signs of Letting Up Australia&#8217;s June labour force showed remarkable resilience, with employment growth exceeding expectations. The month saw an increase of 32.6k jobs, a 0.2% rise that surpassed Westpac&#8217;s prediction of a 25k boost and far exceeded the median market forecast of a modest 15k increase. 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