{"id":16145,"date":"2022-12-05T06:57:23","date_gmt":"2022-12-05T06:57:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xtreamforex.com\/?p=16145"},"modified":"2022-12-05T06:57:23","modified_gmt":"2022-12-05T06:57:23","slug":"consensus-is-for-the-rba-to-hike-by-25bp-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/MU\/consensus-is-for-the-rba-to-hike-by-25bp-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Consensus is for the RBA to hike by 25bp tomorrow"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>Consensus is for the RBA to hike by 25bp tomorrow<\/h1>\n<p><strong>What has happened since the last RBA meeting:-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>10th November: Australia\u2019s Central Bank says nearer to point when it can wait on rates.<br \/>\nCPI fell to 6.9% y\/y, down from 7.4% and beneath the 7.5% &#8211; suggesting inflation has peaked.<br \/>\nGovernor Lowe reiterated his belief that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/mu\/economic-calendar\/\"><strong>economy<\/strong><\/a> can have a soft landing.<br \/>\nPMI\u2019s continued south, business sentiment has been flat.<br \/>\nConsumer inflation expectations hit a record high according to one survey.<br \/>\nOIS curve is pointing lower as the case for a higher terminal rate diminishes.<\/p>\n<p>The RBA\u2019s cash rate currently sits at 2.85%, after hiking rates for a record seven consecutive meetings totaling 275bp. And despite being a late starter compared to the RBNZ, Fed and pretty much everyone \u2013 the RBA continue to believe the terminal rate will remain lower than their peers. For comparison, RBNZ have an OCR of 4.25% and expected to rise to at least 4.5%, yet a recent poll suggests the RBA\u2019s terminal rate will be around 3.6% next year.<\/p>\n<p>It is expected, RBA to hike rates for a record eight consecutive meeting tomorrow by 25bp. With that said, we shouldn\u2019t discount the potential for a hold \u2013 which is sure that consumers would love. Yet they\u2019re more likely to hike to 3.1% as they do not meet again until February. But the case for a pause in January is certainly building. Some measures of inflation expectations are moving lower, and the monthly inflation print suggests inflation has peaked at 7.4% y\/y \u2013 as it fell to 6.9%, compared with 7.5% expected. All 30 economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA to hike by 25bp tomorrow, however money markets currently estimate just a 56% probability \u2013 which means there\u2019s a 44% chance that they will pause.<\/p>\n<p>The symmetrical triangle breakout on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/mu\/\"><strong>AUD\/USD<\/strong><\/a> remains in play on the 4-hour chart, and prices pulled back into a support cluster following Friday\u2019s NFP report. Next target for bulls to consider remains 69c, so we\u2019re hoping prices can now remain above Friday\u2019s low and revert higher.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Consensus is for the RBA to hike by 25bp tomorrow What has happened since the last RBA meeting:- 10th November: Australia\u2019s Central Bank says nearer to point when it can wait on rates. CPI fell to 6.9% y\/y, down from 7.4% and beneath the 7.5% &#8211; suggesting inflation has peaked. Governor Lowe reiterated his belief<\/p>\n... <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/MU\/consensus-is-for-the-rba-to-hike-by-25bp-tomorrow\/\">continue reading<\/a>.","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[17],"tags":[322,359,20,265,182,253,360,201],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v16.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Consensus is for the RBA to hike by 25bp tomorrow | Xtreamforex<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The RBA\u2019s cash rate currently sits at 2.85%, after hiking rates for a record seven consecutive meetings totaling 275bp.\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/MU\/consensus-is-for-the-rba-to-hike-by-25bp-tomorrow\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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