Fundamental Analysis Category

A Busy Week for Central Banks Sentiment is cautiously bullish into the next US CPI figure, due tomorrow, and the next FOMC decision due Wednesday. U.S. inflation is expected to have fallen to 4.1% in May from 4.9%, and core inflation is estimated to be lower at 5.3% from 5.5% published the previous month earlier.

Chinese Markets Unmoved By This Morning’s Price Data US weekly jobless claims, of all things, was responsible for yesterday’s main market move. Applications rose from 233k to 261k, more than the 235k expected. It triggered a US bond rally which dragged European peers higher as well. While it doesn’t change expectations for a pause at

Surprise BoC Hike Fuels Hawks Around the World The surprise 25bp hike from the Bank of Canada (BoC) yesterday sent shockwaves across the financial markets. BoC decision to resume its rate hikes after a two-meeting pause and the surprise 25bp from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) a day earlier fueled the central bank hawks

Weak Chinese Trade Data Add to Growth Worries German Bunds outperformed US Treasuries during European trading hours following an unexpectedly strong decrease of inflation expectations in the ECB’s April Consumer Expectations Survey. The divergence between the two became even larger as US Treasuries started underperforming (especially at the front end the curve) during the US

Reserve Bank of Australia Raised Policy Rate Further by 25 bps A disappointing US non-manufacturing ISM was yesterday’s defining moment for FI and FX trading. Up until the release, the post-payrolls momentum still pushed US rates and the dollar gently higher. Afterwards, intraday fortunes changes, the first Pavlov reaction didn’t really gain traction afterwards. Turning