{"id":28460,"date":"2024-06-12T08:29:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T08:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/?p=28460"},"modified":"2024-06-12T08:29:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T08:29:09","slug":"us-cpi-steady-in-may-ahead-of-fed-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/ID\/us-cpi-steady-in-may-ahead-of-fed-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1><strong>US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This report is highly significant as it could trigger substantial volatility in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/ID\/\"><strong>US Dollar<\/strong><\/a>, with any unexpected figures potentially influencing the market&#8217;s expectations regarding a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expectations for May CPI Data Inflation in the US, as measured by the CPI, is projected to rise at an annual rate of 3.4% in May, maintaining the same pace as observed in April. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to be at 3.5%, slightly down from the 3.6% recorded in April. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% in May, compared to a 0.3% rise in April, while the core CPI is likely to hold steady at 0.3%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Market Sentiment and Fed\u2019s Stance Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently adopted a more cautious tone on the interest rate outlook, indicating that confidence in inflation returning to lower levels is not as strong as before. This dovish stance aligns with the softening of headline and core CPI inflation seen in April. However, recent US business activity and employment data had reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September until a robust labor market report shifted sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest Nonfarm Payrolls data showed an increase of 272,000 jobs in May, significantly exceeding the forecasted 185,000 jobs. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing expectations. This data suggested continued tightness in the labor market and rising wage inflation, which tempered bets on a September rate cut. According to the CME Group\u2019s Fed Watch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in September dropped from 55% to 43% after the labor market report, with markets now pricing a roughly even chance of two rate cuts by the end of 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Implications for EUR\/USD The reaction of the EUR\/USD to the upcoming <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=UjZT4Lx9eKU\"><strong>CPI data<\/strong><\/a> could be significant. A monthly core CPI increase of 0.3% or higher could bolster market confidence in the Fed extending its pause on rate hikes, especially after strong labor market data. This scenario would likely strengthen the US Dollar against major currencies. Conversely, a lower-than-expected core inflation figure, around 0.1%, could renew hopes for a continued disinflationary trend and reinforce expectations for a September rate cut, potentially leading to a USD sell-off.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This report is highly significant as it could trigger substantial volatility in the US Dollar, with any unexpected figures potentially<\/p>\n... <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xtrememarkets.com\/ID\/us-cpi-steady-in-may-ahead-of-fed-decision\/\">continue reading<\/a>.","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28461,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[17],"tags":[20,617,266,168,296,2613,278,157,325,242,2311],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v16.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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